WWI: Power balance and alliances

Imagine this: two mafia gangs, in the same city. Both gangs are equally strong -- they have the same number of members -- so both have the same power. One day, the red gang gains two new members. The blue gang are still just as many, but they feel as if they just have lost power to the other gang, because they have become more, and stronger. The blues feel threatened, and have to do something to gain their power back -- or even better, get more power than their enemies.

They see only one solution: Strike now, before the other gang gets even stronger. There are similarities between this story about the two gangs, and the reasons for the outbreak of World War I. World War I raged in the middle of Europe and in many other places, from 1914 to 1918 -- ... and became one of the bloodiest wars in world history. The countries at war felt threatened by each other.

They wanted both to protect their own power, and to keep other countries from getting more power. The map of Europe looked entirely different before World War I. Great Britain, France, and Russia had promised each other, that if one of them was dragged into war, then the others should also join the war and help out. They had formed an alliance. On the other side, also in an alliance, was: Germany, which at this time looked pretty different and was larger than today's Germany.

And South East of Germany was a large country, that no longer exists, Austria-Hungary. It consisted not only of present day Austria and Hungary, but also of parts of countries like today's Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia... Italy was also in the alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary (but the Italians broke with this alliance as soon as the war broke out.) Why then, did these countries feel threatened by each other? Germany had not existed as a separate country for very long, but was unified into one country only in 1871. The country developed, and became increasingly powerful.

They built up their industry, and just like France and Britain, the Germans too started to take over countries around the world, and turn them into colonies. France and Britain had previously waged war on each other, but when Germany grew stronger, they thought it safest to stick together in the face of a common threat. Additionally, France wanted revenge, after having lost to Germany in the previous war of 1871. So France and Britain wanted to weaken the power of Germany, and Germany wanted to keep its power and even get more powerful. Fear got Germany to seek support from its ally Austria-Hungary, and fear made Britain and France establish an alliance with Russia.

Together, they all thought, they would be stronger than their combined enemies. In Eastern Europe too, the conflict was about power and about fear of losing to other countries' power. Austria-Hungary was a weakened super power, that felt itself increasingly threatened by Russia. In 1909, Austria-Hungary took over Bosnia -- ... with the goal of grabbing as much as it could of the Balkans.

But that couldn't be tolerated by Russia! In Russia, most people felt a connection to many of those who lived in the Balkans. But even more important than commonality, was the fact that Russia didn't want to allow the power of Austria-Hungary to grow into a threat. Now everyone is looking nervously at each other. Hmm.

What if the other alliance is about to become superior, and then we don't stand a chance? Just maybe, it's safer to strike now, preemptively, before the other guys manage to become even stronger? Now it's tense. A single sudden move, and anything can happen.